Preakness 147: What to Know When Playing Pimlico

Horse racing is often won by circumstance. The pace of a race, a jockey decisions, and track profile can often produce unusual results. Here’s what you need to know about how the track at Pimlico can impact the outcome of the Preakness.

Pimlico Spring Meet, Short and Sweet

One of the biggest challenges with the Preakness is how early in the meet it falls. Saturday’s Preakness will be run on just the second weekend of the meet.

This presents the same challenge for handicappers as the running of the Derby. The run for the roses is also run in just the 2nd week of Churchill’s meet. There just isn’t that much data to get a great read on what trends may exist on the track.

Furthermore, Pimlico runs the shortest meet of any of the triple crown tracks. This gives horseplayers a much shorter window to figure out any quirks of the track. These trends can change from year to year depending on a number of factors.

The 2022 meet has a total of just 12 racing days. The Black Eyed Susan for fillies will be run on the 6th day. The Preakness Stakes falls on day 7 of the meet.

May Showers Love the Races

Another key factor in determining how the track is playing is the weather. Wind, humidity, precipitation, and cloud cover can all have some impact on how the races are run.

Pimlico is located in Baltimore, Maryland. The challenge is that the weather can be quite tumultuous there in the spring. It is not uncommon to get several days of rain consecutively which can impact the course condition.

Wet Start to the Meet

After two days of fast and firm conditions on opening weekend, the track was pummeled with storms. The rain caused management to shut down the turf course. All races were run a sloppy track for the rest of the weekend.

Storms continued through Monday, but it now appears to be clear sailing through the big race on Saturday.

Players looking at track profile should pay more attention to the results of Thursday and Friday from opening weekend than Saturday and Sunday. The former are much more likely conditions to be replicated for Pimlico’s biggest races.

Pimlico Preferred Running Styles

For many players Pimlico is a one off type of track. With such a short season players often come in for spot plays or big days and then never look at the track again until the following year at Preakness time.

One of the challenges in a pari-mutuel market is the need to have an edge on your fellow players to make money. Knowing how a track plays is one such edge that can give a player on edge on the once a year bettor.

Betting News Track Profile Tools

For these tracks that players drop into Betting News has a bevy of tools that can do much of the research for you.

Track Bias

One of the best tools to use when trying to establish which horses may have the running style and speed to fit the track profile is the Track Bias tool.

The below image is the result of setting filters to Pimlico dirt races between a mile and a mile and a quarter.

The darker the red box in the image above, the more likely the run style/speed combination is to produce the winner.

One of the interesting things about this chart is that at most dirt tracks players will find the top right corner to have the darkest red segments. However, this grid shows that fast horses from the back of the pack have a better than average change to win at Pimlico.

When using this tool I find it best to eliminate rather than elevate. For example, in the Preakness Stakes I will throw out horses with speed designations of “Slowest”, “Slow”, and any “Mid Packs” who do not have a “Leaders” pace designation.

The filters on this tool can be used to help with the rest of the card by changing the distance and surface filters to match the particular race you are handicapping.

Post Position Analysis

Equibase keeps up to date post position statistics on every thoroughbred track. The stats are broken out into 3 categories.

• Dirt Sprints
• Dirt Routes
• Turf

Using these can be helpful to determine post positions that may be positive or negative for the race being handicapped.

Outside In

One trend that has emerged on the dirt through the first four days of racing is that it is better to be middle and out on the dirt.

Generally speaking middle post positions are considered to be 4,5,6 and 7. Posts 1,2, and 3 are considered inside draws and anything 8 and beyond is considered outside.

Opening weekend saw posts 1,2, and 3 on the dirt score at a 39% clip producing just 13 winners in 39 races.

Inversely 17 winners on opening weekend came from posts 4,5, and 6. The 7 post was 0-14. The middle posts won at a much more productive 52%. This is especially telling when you consider that posts 4-7 were not used in all races due to low entries or scratches.

This trend was amplified when you consider that of the 13 winners on the inside only 4 came from the first two days of racing when the track was fast. This could suggest that a dry track amplifies the impact of outside post positions.

Continued Preakness Coverage

Betting News will have greater coverage of the Preakness Stakes throughout the week.

• New Shooters: Reviewing the Resume’s of Preakness Horses that Skipped the Derby (Wednesday 9 am Eastern)
• Black Eyed Susan Full Card Analysis (Wednesday 2 pm Eastern)
• Preakness Stakes Full Card Analysis (Thursday 9 am Eastern)
• Preakness Stakes Betting Strategies for Every Bankroll (Thursday 2 pm Eastern)