Thistledown: Petro Memorial Stakes Analysis, Selections

Thistledown Race Course in Ohio is hardly in the pantheon of elite race tracks. However, these small tracks make up the life blood of the racing industry.

Betting on Small Tracks

Players unfamiliar with small midweek tracks will quickly learn that the pools are much smaller. This means that favorites are often very short in the win pool and logical combinations are covered by a majority of the money.

Horseplayers looking to make score on J. Petro Memorial Stakes day will want to look to bet if and only if there is value. These smaller tracks require players to have a much greater awareness of when, where, and how to fire.

Large Fields

Often races at Thistledown will end up with short fields of 6 or 7 horses before scratches. On Tuesday the Ohio track saw its first race scratched down to a match race (2 horse field).

The good news for bettors is that the horses have come out for Saturday’s card with plenty of fields over 8 horses on the program. This means more options for the public to bet on and better returns on wagers.

Speed Kills

Thistledown exclusively runs on dirt. There is no turf course on site. Dirt is notorious for favoring early speed, but at times the Ohio track can be almost impossible to make up even the smallest amount of ground.

Horses that rate out well with good early pace should be considered major threats to win the race.

Thursday Full Card Analysis

Thistledown Race Course Race 1

Post: 12:50 PM ET; Purse: $15,500 Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #7 FAIT ACCOMPLI (5-2) has the top speed figures and should be the front runner early. This one looks tough to beat.
• #5 BUNDLEDLIKE BERNIE (6-1) has speed figures competitive with the top runner.
• #3 LEXATOGA (12-1) looks good in this spot based on class .
• #6 FLYING GUILLOTINE (7-2) comes into the race in solid form and makes sense in this spot.

Selections: 7-5-3-6 (Best Bet: #7 FAIT ACCOMPLI)

Thistledown Race Course Race 2

Post: 1:20 PM ET; Purse: $20,000 Starter Optional Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 6

• #5 SMASH (7-2) looks to be the likely pace setter here and has the best final times of anyone in the group.
• #3 FORTUNATE FRIENDS (4-1) has run against better of late and has been very good at the mile 70 distance.
• #4 PAT DADDY (9-2) has run good speed figures and should get a decent race flow.
• #1 ENJOY BASEBALL (5-1) has to be considered a rank outsider, but he could factor in the number somewhere.

Selections: 5-3-4-1

Thistledown Race Course Race 3

Post: 1:50 PM ET; Purse: $35,800 Allowance, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11

• #2 GIV'EM THE BIZ (8-1) knows that the best chance is to run fast early. Look for this one to try and clear off right from the start.
• #1 CRYPTO COPY (9-2) has excelled in dirt sprints throughout the career.
• #5 SCORZA (6-1) looks to have been running against better. Maybe the class dip can wake up this runner.
• #3 TRAITOR AMONGST US (8-1) is another who has run against tougher.

Selections: 2-1-5-3

Thistledown Race Course Race 4

Post: 2:20 PM ET; Purse: $28,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

• #9 AMADEVIL (3-1) has a lethal combination of top speed and early pace numbers. The good news is that there does not appear anyone near as fast to the inside so he should be able to clear off with little problem.
• #8 GONNABEGOOD (9-2) stacks up well enough in the speed figure department.
• #1 TIVIS (7-2) is a distance specialist but comes from mid-pack which has been tough to do this week.
• #2 SIMONA'S CHOICE (12-1) comes into the race in great form. At these odds this one provides great value.

Selections: 9-8-1-2

Thistledown Race Course Race 5

Post: 2:50 PM ET; Purse: $28,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #5 WICKED WARRIOR (3-1) has run against better and will be on the engine from the start.
• #3 MACHISMO (9-2) makes sense based on the previous success at this distance.
• #6 DOUGIE D ORO (5-2) has been running really well of late.
• #1 SHADOW TRACER (5-1) is far more likely to hit the board than win the race.

Selections: 5-3-6-1

Thistledown Race Course Race 6

Post: 3:20 PM ET; Purse: $26,400 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #8 TONKAWA SPRINGS (7-2) should be near the front in the early stages, but has plenty of late kick to finish the job in the waning strides.
• #4 POUR ME A DOUBLE (3-1) is another pace player who boasts the top speed figures in the group.
• #1 DUKE OF FENWAY (10-1) isn’t without hope on debut.
• #2 C C'S CLEAR CREEK (12-1) has to be looked at based on the connections.

Selections: 8-4-1-2

Thistledown Race Course Race 7

Post: 3:50 PM ET; Purse: $75,000 J. William Petro Memorial H., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 11

• #3 SALLY STRONG (7-2) comes into the race in great form and has been running against really tough competition.
• #5 MOONLIT MISSION (4-1) will be a factor in the early stages. This one may be the one everyone has to catch late.
• #2 WINDY LU WHO (20-1) has a chance based on the connections. This one will definitely find the bottom half of my tickets.
• #6 BALLROOM BLITZ (10-1) has run final times to be competitive.

Selections: 3-5-2-6

Thistledown Race Course Race 8

Post: 4:20 PM ET; Purse: $33,900 Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 12

• #10 TRULY INCLUSIVE (4-1) will get the first start and has been working well coming into the race.
• #4 MISS ELLIE (7-2) ran well at this distance last out and goes out for a great barn.
• #9 LAYITONTHICK (5-1) has run against what appears to be some decent fields thus far in the career.
• #1 JUPITER ECLIPSE (30-1) is a total wild card on debut, but the connections make this one a promising prospect.

Selections: 10-4-9-1

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