Tampa Bay Downs: Tampa Bay Derby Offers Kentucky Points

Rain threatens the conditions at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday. Regardless, Kentucky Derby hopefuls are set to square off rain or shine.

Tampa Bay Derby Preview

Tampa Bay Downs Race 11

Post: 5:23 PM ET; Purse: $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 12

• #4 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (8-5) won the Sam F. Davis which is the local prep for this race. This one looks strong in this spot and if he’s progressing well could really establish himself as a major player on the Derby trail.
• #5 GIANT GAME (10-1) was my upset pick last weekend in the Fountain of Youth. I think this one is as much a player here as he was in last weekend’s contest.
• #8 MAJOR GENERAL (9-2) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
• #9 SHIPSATIONAL (5-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form.

Selections: 4-5-8-9

Saturday Undercard Analysis

Tampa Bay Downs Race 1

Post: 12:15 PM ET; Purse: $38,000 Handicap, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

• #3 DON'T GET KHOZY (8-5) is a well bred for this spot and has speed figures that make him the reasonable favorite. He has the top power rating in the group as well
• #1 WHOLEBODEMEISTER (7-2) will be in the right spot early to make this one interesting. Maybe this one can carry the speed all the way around the track and get the victory.
• #4 NIGHT CAP (2-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.
• #2 PINK SHOELACES (8-1) is an outsider who could potentially get a decent set up in this spot. I’m not sure how likely a winner this one is, but maybe up for a slice in the late going is a reasonable expectation.

Selections: 3-1-4-2

Tampa Bay Downs Race 2

Post: 12:45 PM ET; Purse: $35,500 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #6 JEOPARDY JAMES (7-2) is worth an include solely based on the speed figures earned in previous starts.
• #2 CAJUN CASANOVA (9-5) rates well in a number of key metrics. The price seems a little short for a horse I have as the fourth fastest.
• #7 SELF TAUGHT (5-2) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
• #1 BREWMEISTER (6-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.

Selections: 6-2-7-1

Tampa Bay Downs Race 3

Post: 1:14 PM ET; Purse: $21,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 13

• #2 STREET LAMP (7-2) is well bred for this bunch. With a little experience under the belt this one has to be considered a top prospect in the race.
• #10 MARSICO (6-1) is a first time starter that I like in this spot. If this one earns a point or more in the early betting, I will press this horse hard.
• #7 CONSIDER ME (15-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.
• #1 ROCKY DICE (10-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.

Selections: 2-10-7-1

Tampa Bay Downs Race 4

Post: 1:44 PM ET; Purse: $20,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 14

• #9 JIMMY THE KID (2-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed & class.
• #8 CAPTAIN (6-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
• #10 CPOWER (8-1) wouldn't be a huge surprise in the winner's circle.
• #2 PHAROAH CAT (9-2) wouldn't be a huge surprise in the winner's circle.

Selections: 9-8-10-2

Tampa Bay Downs Race 5

Post: 2:13 PM ET; Purse: $40,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile 40 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #8 COMMANDPERFORMANCE (3-5) barring a horrible turn of racing luck, this one looks like about as much of a lock as they come. This one is my best bet but makes no sense to play to win. Shrewd players will likely need to use this one creatively in verticals or as a pressed up single in horizontals.
• #1 FENWICK (8-1) is well bred to win at this level at some point. The problem is that this one ran into a complete monster.
• #3 KING OF CHAOS (20-1) doesn’t come in as the most touted debut runner, but maybe in a situation where all the experience looks up against it, this one can blow up the exotics.
• #6 PICCADILLY (8-1) has solid connections and could make some noise here.

Selections: 8-1-3-6 (Most Likely Winner: #8 COMMANDPERFORMANCE)

Tampa Bay Downs Race 6

Post: 2:44 PM ET; Purse: $40,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 13

• #9 GINA ROMANTICA (9-5) is well bred and gets the combination of Brown and Irad. This one looks tough, but also looks like the kind of horse that will get crushed on the odds board.
• #6 BIRTHDAY TIME (3-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.
• #2 LA CASA D'ORO (6-1) has speed figures early in the young career to be a player in this spot.
• #12 BROOKWOOD HILLS (20-1) has experience and that can often help in these types of spots.

Selections: 9-6-2-12

Tampa Bay Downs Race 7

Post: 3:14 PM ET; Purse: $225,000 Hillsborough S., 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; Entries: 9

• #3 LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE (5-2) looks really good in this spot and should get a really nice trip in this spot.
• #2 TAKE CHARGE RO (12-1) likes this distance on the turf. Saving ground inside could help this one pull an upset.
• #1 LOVELY LUCKY (10-1) has speed figures that make this one a player, but I am always a little less sure of turf figures.
• #7 RUNAWAY RUMOUR (6-1) is in great form lately and could have a say somewhere on the mutuel payouts.

Selections: 3-2-1-7

Tampa Bay Downs Race 8

Post: 3:49 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 $100,000 Michelob Ultra Challenger S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #3 GREATEST HONOUR (3-1) has the speed figures and power ratings to be competitive in this field.
• #4 DYNAMIC ONE (5-2) was a horse that I, like many, fell in love with on the Derby trail as a sneaky outsider. We’re a long way from that now, but this one makes sense against this group.
• #1 WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST (10-1) should be prominent early in the race and could get brave and pop a little value into the race.
• #5 WAR STOPPER (8-1) is another solid price that could be on or near the lead.

Selections: 3-4-1-5

Tampa Bay Downs Race 9

Post: 4:20 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 Florida Oaks, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 9

• #7 ALITTLELOVEANDLUCK (7-2) likes the distance and seems well matched with this field of runners.
• #8 ON ALERT (8-1) has breeding that says this race is a good fit for the filly.
• #1 MRS. BARBARA (6-1) will be on the engine in the early stages and depending on the rest of the field could try to draw off and hide.
• #9 AMBITIEUSE (3-1) from a speed and class perspective this one makes sense, but I worry about what might happen to the inside. At 3-1 this one is usable. Shorter than that I will try to play against.

Selections: 7-8-1-9

Tampa Bay Downs Race 10

Post: 4:51 PM ET; Purse: $75,000 Columbia S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 10

• #6 FORT WASHINGTON (9-2) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.
• #3 KITTEN MISCHIEF (4-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & class.
• #8 GINGRICH (4-1) has come up against runners that should have this one well prepared for this spot.
• #5 HEAVEN STREET (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in connections & possible race set up.

Selections: 6-3-8-5

Tampa Bay Downs Race 11

Post: 5:23 PM ET; Purse: $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 12

• Tampa Bay Derby analysis provided above.

Selections: 4-5-8-9

Tampa Bay Downs Race 12

Post: 5:55 PM ET; Purse: $35,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 14

• #13 DISTINCTLYPOSSIBLE (4-5) stands over this group in just about every handicapping category. However, there is a real possibility that I leave this one off tickets because I want nothing to do with an even money maiden sitting out that wide.
• #8 BALI BELLE (3-1) has run competitive figures to the thirteen and should save ground in relation to the wide drawing favorite.
• #4 EDYE'S CANDY (7-2) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
• #3 GET SERIOUS (10-1) is really interesting and well bred to do well in this race. The inside post is extremely helpful.

Selections: 13-8-4-3

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