Sunday’s Dowager Stakes Wide Open: Keeneland Analysis

Temple City Terror enters the the final Keeneland stakes race of the weekend as the favorite. The race looks wide open and prime for an upset possibility.

Keeneland- Race 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET; $48k Claiming going about 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 7

• #5 BLUE KENTUCKY (9-2) gets the top selection. He has races good enough to beat this group. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #6 LEBLON (6-1) shouldn't have trouble with the about 7 furlong distance. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #7 SOROS (9-5) comes into the race in really good form. This one could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
• #3 RUNWAY MAGIC (7-2) makes sense on speed figures. This one seems to fit well enough here.

Selections: 5 – 6 – 7 – 3

Keeneland- Race 2

Post: 1:32 PM ET; $69k Maiden Claiming going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 16

• #2 RATE CONFIRMATION (8-1) should improve off the first start and is the top pick. He makes sense on speed figures. This one has the pedigree to be a major player in this spot.
• #5 ARISTOCRACY (9-2) debuts here and has to be respected going out for the combination of Cox and Geroux. This one is well bred for this spot.
• #10 ONCE UPON A DREAM (8-1) handled these conditions well on debut and should take a step forward here.
• #14 BOUDIN (6-1) is going out for the 2nd career start after a decent debut. This one was definitely disadvantaged by the wide post draw.

Selections: 2 – 5 – 10- 14

Keeneland- Race 3

Post: 2:04 PM ET; $43k Maiden Claiming going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 10

• #3 HYPER SPEED (12-1) is a price horse and looks best here. He has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. There is a bit in the bloodlines to expect a decent run.
• #10 DOC BALLARD (10-1) has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one seems to fit well enough here.
• #1 O'CONNER SUNSET (4-1) debuts here in a group of proven losers and has some decent breeding for this spot.
• #5 CHELONIAN (3-1) has to be given a look based on the speed figures earned in the previous starts.

Selections: 3 – 10- 1 – 5

Keeneland- Race 4

Post: 2:36 PM ET; $51k Claiming going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 9

• #4 MAGICAL PEAPOD (7-2) gets the top selection. She has races good enough to beat this group. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #8 MAOILIN (5-1) will likely be out on or near the lead and will look to hold off the charge to the wire. She fits on speed figures.
• #7 TELLMEONASUNDAY (5-2) should be competitive in this spot. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Silva and Saez.
• #1 MALIBU MARLEE (15-1) has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. Maybe this one can upset in the verticals for some value.

Selections: 4 – 8 – 7 – 1

Keeneland- Race 5

Post: 3:08 PM ET; $130k Allowance going 1 1/16 miles on turf; Entries: 16

• #7 JAIS'S SOLITUDE (15-1) is a price horse that may benefit from a hot pace up front. He comes into the race in good form.
• #3 DECISION MAKER (12-1) has really good speed figures. It is great to see that Florent Geroux takes the mount.
• #12 SHADOW SPHINX (6-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He makes sense on speed figures. He will want them cruising up front to have a target late.
• #15 GLYNN COUNTY (6-1) has the top overall power rating in the group. He would be among the favorites if he wasn’t on such an island with the 15 post draw.

Selections: 7 – 3 – 12- 15

Keeneland- Race 6

Post: 3:40 PM ET; $100k Maiden Special Weight going 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 13

• #13 HAPPY IS A CHOICE (10-1) has races good enough to beat this group and may actually benefit from being in the clear in the short race.
• #4 CRAVENSWORTH (4-1) debuts here and appears to be a major player in this race. Rosario takes the mount and the morning line says this one can giddy up.
• #2 YACHT ROCK (12-1) is a price horse and has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.
• #10 ZED (3-1) isn't without hope. He goes out for the O'Neill barn and gets Gaffalione in the irons.

Selections: 13- 4 – 2 – 10

Keeneland- Race 7

Post: 4:12 PM ET; $300k Rood and Riddle Dowager S. going 1 1/2 miles on turf; Entries: 11

• #1 COASTANA (6-1) gets the top selection. She seems to fit well enough here. This one shouldn't have trouble with the 1 1/2 mile distance.
• #7 BESIDE HERSELF (9-2) appears to be a major player in this race. She could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end. This one has races good enough to beat this group.
• #2 LUCK MONEY (4-1) has back races that would make her a definite factor in this spot.
• #11 MIA MARTINA (15-1) will have to save ground but could make this one interesting if she can find the inside early.

Selections: 1 – 7 – 2 – 11

Keeneland- Race 8

Post: 4:44 PM ET; $110k Allowance going 1 1/8 miles on dirt; Entries: 10

• #7 BIG CITY MOMMA (6-1) is the top pick. She makes sense on speed figures. This one goes out for the Mcgaughey barn and gets Gaffalione in the irons.
• #3 PARK ON THE NILE (7-2) appears to be a major player in this race. She shouldn't have trouble with the 1 1/8 mile distance. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #8 ICE ORCHID (5-1) could be in with a shot in this race. She fits based on some of the recent figures earned. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #6 TAKE CARE (8-1) could get the right setup in this race.

Selections: 7 – 3 – 8 – 6

Keeneland- Race 9

Post: 5:16 PM ET; $120k Allowance going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf; Entries: 12

• #6 LYRICAL POET (8-1) looks best here. He has races good enough to beat this group. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #10 EVAN SING (9-2) appears to be a major player in this race. He should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders. This one makes sense on speed figures.
• #12 GALLANT GUY (20-1) is a price horse and could be in with a shot in this race. He has been good in these turf sprints previously.
• #11 CASANOVA KITTEN (6-1) could be in with a shot in this race. He has run against some really good foes of late and comes into the race in good form.

Selections: 6 – 10- 12- 11

Keeneland Handicapping Tools

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