Preakness Recap: Epicenter Falls Short Again, Early Voting Prevails

It was a busy weekend at Pimlico Race Course. The Preakness was just one of several stakes over the two day card and saw Early Voting pull a mild upset.

The Black Eyed Susan

The day before the Preakness most of the fillies took to the track to establish a winner of the second leg of their triple crown.

I say most because there was was noticeable absence from the race. Secret Oath, winner of the Kentucky Oaks, skipped this race for a shot at the boys in Saturday’s big race.

2nd Tier Stakes

While the Kentucky Oaks was one of the most anticipated races of the calendar year this one left a little more to be desired. With the heavy hitters from the Oaks either headed to the Preakness or skipping the weekend all together this field was comprised of the rest of the best in the fillies division.

The Race

Heading into the race on Friday it seemed as though the fast Pimlico dirt was tipped slightly toward front runners. This would become more pronounced as the days went on. The outcome of the Black Eyed Susan seemed to confirm this.

Hot Early Pace

The early pace was set by #5 Beguine (11-1). After getting a clear lead into the first turn she posted a 46 and 3/5th seconds to the half mile.

Conventional pace handicapping is that horses run about 12 seconds per furlong which means that an average pace would be closer to 48 seconds at the 4 furlong marker. These runners were already 1 and 2/5th seconds ahead of that.

As the half mile was posted #9 Interstatedaydream (6-1) sat about 1 length and a half off the leader with race favorite #10 Adare Manor (2-1) hung wide and another length off of that. This was concerning for backers of the horse as she is typically a front runner and was losing a lot of ground to her opponents.

The Far Turn

Entering the far turn little had changed in the order. #9 Interstatedaydream was turning up the heat on the leader and #10 Adare Manor was clearly being asked for more by her jockey, but was giving a very mild response.

No one else appeared to be of any consequence.

The Stretch Run

In the stretch #9 Interstatedaydream made her move with #10 Adare Manor chasing hopelessly. The #5 Beguine who had set such honest fractions throughout absolutely fell apart and moonwalked the length of the stretch to join a group of even running closers.

#11 Radio Days was the only runner from the off the pace that made any ground flying up from the back of the pack to get into third. #1 Divine Huntress (25-1) ran a level 4th holding the position nearly all the way around the track.

Results

• #9 Interstatedaydream (F. Geroux, B. Cox) Win: $14.20; Place: $6.40; Show: $5.00
• #10 Adare Manor (J. Velazquez, S. McCarthy) Place: $ 4.40 Show: $3.20
• #11 Radio Days (J. Rosario, C. McGaughey III) Show: $7.60
• $1.00 Exacta (9-10) Paid: $30.70
• $1.00 Trifecta (9-10-11) Paid: $275.30
• $1.00 Superfecta (9-10-11-1) Paid: $3,831.90

Preakness 147

The main event of the weekend was the 2nd jewel of the triple crown. The Preakness Stakes featured a heavy favorite in Epicenter.

Dumb Money

In horse racing there is often discussion of “smart money.” This refers to money that comes in from the barns based on tips. The perception is that these people have some insight and therefore horses who are taking money off the morning line are more likely to win at a price.

That was not the case at Preakness 147. Pretty early in the voting it became clear that Rich Strike would have an influence on the race after all. Happy Jack and Fenwick, two horses who felt like they should have been 80-1 or higher in this field were much shorter.

At one point in the lead up Fenwick who my profit line numbers had at 100-1 was at 7-1. The reason for this was the casual fan. FOMO was in full effect from the Derby with people who had never bet before seeing what a huge score the longest shot on the board could produce.

This is the only explanation for hopeless horses (who ran to expectation) taking that kind of money. This was “dumb money” and meant that serious players could get value on legitimate contenders.

The Race

By this point in the day it was clear you needed to be on the lead or nipping at the heels of the leader if you wanted to get anywhere near the winner’s circle at Pimlico.

The Break

Coming out of the gate most runners got the start they were expecting with one notable exception. Although the break wasn’t horrible, #8 Epicenter was noticeably mid pack and squeezed in tight between horses.

Passing the wire for the first time Joel Rosario worked to get #8Epicenter down to the rail and ran into a mess of traffic on the heels of #9 Skippylongstocking and #6 Happy Jack.

#7 Armagnac was able to clear off for the lead with Early Voting drafting in behind. The lone filly in the race dropped to dead last.

Moderate Fractions

Through the first turn and up the backstretch the horses set very moderate fractions with an opening quarter over 24 seconds and speeding up on slightly into the half mile call a hair over 47 seconds.

In the run up the backstretch Jose Ortiz put #5 Early Voting off the hip of the leader while #2 Creative Minister made a clever middle move to get into a better spot for the final run.

The Far Turn

Ortiz was ready to fly and got #5 Early Voting heading the early pace setter around the turn. #2 Creative Minister was tracking in the garden spot behind #7 Armagnac.

#1 Simplification completely hit a wall and began to drop anchor. A post race exam showed the horse had some bleeding which can happen without lasix.

Notable contender #4 Secret Oath circled wide and began her run while #8 Epicenter was tucked in tight on the rail needing a lot of help to find the front.

The Stretch

#5 Early Voting drew off from the fading pace setter and began to open up. #8 Epicenter finally found a crease and made a charging run up the rail to close into 2nd. #2 Creative Minister who had saved more ground than #4 Secret Oath mildly outkicked the filly for third.

In the final strides the tired #5 Early Voting wondered badly in the stretch but never enough to cause any interference that impacted the race. Jose Ortiz won his first ever Preakness. Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables won their 2nd Preakness with a horse that had skipped the Kentucky Derby.

Results

• 5 Early Voting (J. Ortiz, C. Brown) Win: $13.40 Place: $4.60 Show: $3.60
• 8 Epicenter (J. Rosario, S. Asmussen) Place: $2.80 Show: $2.40
• 2 Creative Minister (B. Hernandez, Jr., K. McPeek) Show: $4.20
• $1.00 Exacta (5-8) Paid: $12.90
• $1.00 Trifecta (5-8-2) Paid: $66.50
• $1.00 Superfecta (5-8-2-4) Paid: $162.90
• $2.00 Daily Double (BES/PRKNSS 9-5) Paid: $101.00

Tracking Bias

One of the most important lessons that players can learn is to make early opinions, but be adaptable if there is signal in other races. On Black Eyed Susan day early speed was vital, but through 4 races on Saturday it looked like you needed the lead.

In the Chick Lang, just a few races before the Preakness, #2 Lightening Larry was part of a suicidal early pace and held on to win paying $26 to win. This signaled to me that even stalking wasn’t an ideal trip at Pimlico on the day.

Calling an Audible

Seeing the track bias I had to change plans. Epicenter had been my Preakness horse since they crossed the wire in the Derby. However, I feared that with some of the pace presence that was entered he would be content to take back and come with a late run. I didn’t believe that was the way to go.

Inversely, I knew the Early Voting would be on the lead or just off. I fancied him a lot but just wasn’t sure he was as good as Epicenter. The track told me that didn’t matter.

I switched all my win plays from Epicenter to Early Voting and keyed the two runners over a couple of horses I liked in third.

This willingness to listen to the signal of the track was the difference between a bad day and the biggest score of the month.

What’s Next For Early Voting?

On Sunday the connections of Early Voting announced that the horse will be skipping the Belmont Stakes. Instead they will being training him up to the Travers Stakes at Saratoga this summer.