Kentucky Oaks: Churchill Downs 5/5 Full Card Analysis

One day ahead of the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks highlights a 13 race card. The Oaks will feature the most talented 3 year old fillies in the country.

Full Card Selections

Kentucky Oaks Undercard- Race 1

Post: 10:30 AM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 12

• #12 FOREVER AFTER ALL (7-2) gets the top selection. She has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.
• #5 BEACH WALKN (6-1) has races good enough to beat this group. This one is well bred for this spot.
• #7 K'ANTHEIA (9-2) makes sense on speed figures. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #6 DESTINE TO RACE (4-1) has the pedigree to be a player here. This one could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.

Selections: 12- 5 – 7 – 6

Kentucky Oaks Undercard- Race 2

Post: 11:00 AM ET; $127k Allowance Optional Claiming going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 14

• #9 UNDERVALUED ASSET (7-2) is the top pick. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Brown and Ortiz. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #11 VAHVA (4-1) appears to be a major player in this race. She has really consistent pace figures which should work well in a moderately paced race. She has been good at these conditions in the past.
• #2 PADMA (9-2) will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late. This one runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.
• #5 PEACOCK LASS (15-1) comes into the race in good form and should be able to get her position going forward in this spot.

Selections: 9 – 11- 2 – 5

Kentucky Oaks Undercard- Race 3

Post: 11:30 AM ET; $134k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 mile on turf; Entries: 20

• #13 PRICE TALK (3-1) looks best here. He shouldn't have trouble with the 1 mile distance. This one projects to sit mid pack and come with one run.
• #6 POINT ME BY (3-1) has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one makes sense on speed figures.
• #10 WHISPER NOT (7-2) goes out for the Brendan Walsh barn and gets Flavien Prat in the irons.
• #1 SMOKIN' T (6-1) has speed figures that make this one very logical in this spot.

Selections: 13- 6 – 10- 1

Kentucky Oaks Undercard- Race 4

Post: 12:05 PM ET; $134k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 mile on dirt; Entries: 18

• #6 JAG WARRIOR (10-1) has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. This one has some decent class figures.
• #16 MOUFFY (4-1) fits on speed figures and is worth a look if she can draw into the race.
• #9 JUMP INTO THE FIRE (9-2) will look to get forward position and make hay as they come to the wire.
• #8 MUSIC STREET (8-1) has the foundation to get the mile distance.

Selections: 6 – 16- 9 – 8

Kentucky Oaks Undercard- Race 5

Post: 12:43 PM ET; $600k Alysheba S. presented by Sentient Jet going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 7

• #4 WEST WILL POWER (2-1) got the better of the rail runner last out. He should like the cutback here and will look to turn the table on another runner to his inside in Last Samurai.
• #1 ART COLLECTOR (5-2) was disappointing last time out at the Fair Grounds, but off the layoff that is forgivable. This one could take a nice step forward here.
• #2 LAST SAMURAI (4-1) is fresh off a huge effort in the Oaklawn Handicap. D Wayne Lukas wheels this one back on fairly short rest which has to be a sign of confidence.
• #3 RICH STRIKE (7-2) will remain the Derby champ until the day after this race, but he’s shown well since his shocking win this time last year.

Selections: 4 – 1 – 2 – 3

Kentucky Oaks Undercard- Race 6

Post: 1:26 PM ET; $300k Modesty S. presented by TwinSpires going 1 1/8 miles on turf; Entries: 9

• #7 SHANTISARA (2-1) is a multiple graded stakes winner and comes off a win in the last race. While Jose Ortiz is a great jock, the move to Flavien Prat has to be seen as a slight upgrade.
• #8 NEW YEAR'S EVE (5-1) showed improvement on the cutback. This one usually sits deep, but Saez will likely get her a bit closer early.
• #6 MCKULICK (5-2) is always close, but seems to come up short half the time. She’s hard to trust at a short price to win, but she must be on tickets to hit the board.
• #2 DIDIA (5-1) has increased her speed figure in each of her first three U.S. starts. She also hasn’t lost since coming to the states, but she hasn’t run against this caliber yet.

Selections: 7 – 8 – 6 – 2

Kentucky Oaks Undercard- Race 7

Post: 2:09 PM ET; $500k Eight Belles S. presented by Sysco going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #9 MUNNYS GOLD (6-5) stands above this group on speed figures.
• #6 RED CARPET READY (3-1) ran a 97 Brisnet speed figure the last time at 7 furlongs which would make her a major player here.
• #4 EFFORTLESSLYELGANT (12-1) ran a career best figure in the Ashland last time out and could take another step forward.
• #1 CONDENSATION (10-1) is 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs and has run her best races shorter between 6 and 8 furlongs.

Selections: 9 – 6 – 4 – 1

Kentucky Oaks Undercard- Race 8

Post: 3:03 PM ET; $300k Unbridled Sidney S. presented by Turfway Park Racing & Gaming going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf; Entries: 12

• #11 CARAVEL (4-5) hasn’t lost on turf since last July. It’s hers to win or lose and the rest will have to prove their worth.
• #1 BAY STORM (6-1) has admittedly not seen the same level of competition that she will say today, but she has been so close in the last 4 and hasn’t been off the board in her last 10 starts.
• #8 OEUVRE (5-1) didn’t have it in the Giant’s Causeway, but before that she had run off 5 stakes wins in a row.
• #9 LITTLE JEWEL (8-1) is a restricted stakes winner with an outside draw which will allow her to react to the race inside of her.

Selections: 11- 1 – 8 – 9

Kentucky Oaks Undercard- Race 9

Post: 4:04 PM ET; $750k La Troienne S. presented by TwinSpires going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 10

• #7 SOCIETY (4-1) has been running in graded stakes company in recent starts and may just have the seasoning against those runners to perform at her best here.
• #2 SEARCH RESULTS (4-1) took a break after the Breeders’ Cup which was clearly needed after that performance. Hopefully she can return to form here.
• #1 PLAYED HARD (9-2) is 3 for 3 in the trifecta in graded stakes races including 2 grade 3 victories. If she finds that August effort from Saratoga, look out.
• #6 CLASSY EDITION (8-1) has back to back wins including a win in the Royal Delta. The challenge for this runner will be the layoff, but Pletcher has brought plenty back off the bench without problem.

Selections: 7 – 2 – 1 – 6

Kentucky Oaks Undercard- Race 10

Post: 4:51 PM ET; $500k Edgewood S. presented by Forcht Bank going 1 1/16 miles on turf; Entries: 11

• #3 CAIRO CONSORT (3-1) has hit the board in every race since switching to the Pletcher barn and has never been more than a neck off the wire since finding her new home.
• #7 COMANCHE COUNTRY (10-1) is a grade 3 winner. The recent efforts leave something to be desired but if this one comes back into form, the price is too tempting.
• #2 LIGURIA (6-1) has posted three consecutive improving figures in each career start. Prat rides for Chad Brown which is always dangerous.
• #9 PAPILIO (7-2) has been good since coming over from Ireland. A runner up finish in a grade 3 followed by a win in a grade 2 make this one a player for a resurgent JJ Castellano.

Selections: 3 – 7 – 2 – 9

Kentucky Oaks- Race 11

Post: 5:51 PM ET; $1250k Longines Kentucky Oaks going 1 1/8 miles on dirt; Entries: 17

• #7 WET PAINT (5-2) has been the most consistent runner in this division, never finishing out of the exacta since breaking the maiden. She also comes off a career top speed figure in the last race.
• #16 JULIA SHINING (15-1) has shown an upward trend in speed figures. She’ll need some help to get in, but if she does she could be an overlooked player.
• #17 HOOSIER PHILLY (30-1) had early Kentucky Derby dreams but those are far in the rearview. This one will need help to get in, but maybe can find some of that old brilliance.
• #5 WONDER WHEEL (12-1) was at one point the toast of the division. Her three year old start has left something to be desired, but 12-1 on a Breeders’ Cup champion is hard to say no to.

Selections: 7 – 16- 17- 5

Churchill Downs- Race 12

Post: 6:25 PM ET; $127k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 11

• #6 GUNS N' GRACES (3-1) looks best here. This one has really consistent pace figures which should work well in a moderately paced race.
• #7 FOREVER DIXIE (6-1) appears to be a major player in this race. She shouldn't have trouble with the 1 1/16 mile distance.
• #1 CURL GIRL (7-2) goes out for the D'Amato barn and gets Prat in the irons.
• #2 TOUGH LEGACY (4-1) comes into this race in top form and should be ready to put in a worthy performance.

Selections: 6 – 7 – 1 – 2

Churchill Downs- Race 13

Post: 7:00 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 16

• #14 AMERICAN RETRO (4-1) should improve off the first start and gets the top selection. She could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end and her debut effort would best this group.
• #1 KID'S LAST LAUGH (8-1) has experience and that can be a huge factor in these maiden races.
• #11 TWIN MISCHIEF (5-1) makes sense on speed figures and has pedigree to be a player in this spot.
• #16 SWANSON LAKE (10-1) will be forwardly placed and if anyone in the field decides not to go forward, things could really open up for this runner.

Selections: 14- 1 – 11- 16