Keeneland: Maker’s Mark Mile Favorite Vulnerable

This week’s racing action is already underway at Keeneland. However, the weekend really heats up on Friday with the Maker’s Mark Mile.

Big Fields

For many, Keeneland is high on the list of favorite tracks around the country. One of those reasons for that is the large fields that appear in almost every race. No race on Friday’s card has less than 8 entries and 3 of the races are oversubscribed at 15 or 16 horses.

For reference Santa Anita also runs on Friday. They have 1 race with 10 horses, 1 with 8 and the rest come in at 5-7 runners.

Overlay City

For horseplayers this means one thing: overlays! With money getting spread to so many different horses in each race, players are going to be able to make much more impactful scores if they can cash an opinion.

More than other tracks, Keeneland is a great place to take a meaningful stab at some legitimate longshots.

Maker’s Mark Miles Analysis

Keeneland Race 9

Post: 5:16 PM ET; Purse: $600,000 Maker's Mark Mile S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 11

• #7 COUNT AGAIN (5-1) has solid class against this group. Turf racing can sometimes be less about talent and more about trip. This runner gets Joel Rosario in the irons. His prowess of timing perfect trips on the turf makes him one of the top jocks in the country.
• #8 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN (12-1) is at long odds, but could be ready to steal this one. He is trained by a trainer with the last name Maker so maybe a bit of a hunch play as well. The thing I love about this horse is that he is an all speed turf runner. This is not common and has allowed this one to steal several races on the front end.
• #6 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT (2-1) has run against the top California turf runners, but that isn’t always the deepest group. Rispoli ships his tack here from California as well. If you haven’t paid attention to turf racing on the west coast, this jockey has been one of the best out there.
• #5 IVAR (6-1) has been in solid form through the most recent start. The inside draw and tactical speed make this one a player.

Selections: 7-8-6-5

Friday Undercard Analysis

Keeneland Race 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET; Purse: $32,000 Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

• #2 HIGH HEATER (3-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & form.
• #1 STAY HOME (7-2) draws the rail and gets Corey Lanerie in the saddle. The jock has no fear inside and could steer this one on a ground saving trip to victory.
• #8 AIRWAR (7-2) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.
• #4 FROLIC MORE (4-1) has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 2-1-8-4

Keeneland Race 2

Post: 1:32 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 16

• #5 I'M GLAD (6-1) will be ridden by hall of fame jockey Johnny Velazquez. I don’t think we’ll get 6-1 though as the main dangerous are likely to be scratched from the race.
• #15 WALKATHON (7-2) has the speed and class figures to win, but the wide draw may be a death sentence in a race that usually rewards ground saving trips.
• #11 WILLAKIA (3-1) will have to work out a trip, but should have the stamina to get the job done, even if it means covering extra ground.
• #14 PHAROAH'S SONG (5-2) is in really solid form, but the trip could be tough with several off the pace types drawn inside.

Selections: 5-15-11-14

Keeneland Race 3

Post: 2:04 PM ET; Purse: $44,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #4 DREAMING OF GERRY (3-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed & pace numbers.
• #3 SONIC CITY (7-2) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
• #5 CARILLO (8-1) should be in the third flight of a race that has plenty of pace players.
• #6 FULL CHARGE (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating.

Selections: 4-3-5-6

Keeneland Race 4

Post: 2:36 PM ET; Purse: $48,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #8 FAN CLUB (2-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed & pace numbers.
• #2 BLUE JAYS (3-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors.
• #7 PERFECT CUT (5-1) may get the right one run trip in the long stretch.
• #5 GUILLAUME (9-2) is piloted by Gaffalione who has been riding very well throughout the early phase of the meet.

Selections: 8-2-7-5

Keeneland Race 5

Post: 3:08 PM ET; Purse: $110,000 Allowance, 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; Entries: 9

• #8 TALKING BOOK (12-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions. In the chaos that can be turf racing I will take a shot here with Rosario.
• #1 OCEAN ROAD (5-2) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including stamina & power rating.
• #4 LUCY'S CAKES FLY (15-1) will go out for Mike Maker who is always one of the top turf trainers in the spring/summer.
• #5 QUEEN BOURBON (6-1) could be one of the early pace players and may have enough to hold on late.

Selections: 8-1-4-5

Keeneland Race 6

Post: 3:40 PM ET; Purse: $130,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #8 MYSTIC NIGHT (5-2) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & class.
• #6 CONCERT TOUR (2-1) will hopefully demonstrate a little early speed and be ready to fire the performance that once made this runner my Derby pick.
• #3 ENFORCEABLE (8-1) is a horse I never want to bet to win, but never want to leave totally off my ticket.
• #2 WAR STOPPER (8-1) will be ridden by Flavien Prat who has proven that he is an elite level talent in the saddle.

Selections: 8-6-3-2

Keeneland Race 7

Post: 4:12 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 TVG Limestone S., 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 10

• #6 DERRYNANE (5-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & connections.
• #8 UNBRIDLED MARY (6-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers.
• #9 FAST COREY (8-1) comes into the race in phenomenal form.
• #10 GUN BOAT (10-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.

Selections: 6-8-9-10

Keeneland Race 8

Post: 4:44 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 15

• #7 TIZ SPLENDID NEWS (7-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse's record at the distance & form.
• #13 REGAL RETORT (5-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & power rating.
• #9 ZAINALARAB (5-1) is backed by Ortiz and Brown and that’s a hard bet against at 5-1.
• #6 FRAUDULENT CHARGE (8-1) is an interesting outsider trained by Lacey Gaudet who draws a good starting spot in this field.

Selections: 7-13-9-6

Keeneland Race 9

Post: 5:16 PM ET; Purse: $600,000 Maker's Mark Mile S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 11

• Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 7-8-6-5

Keeneland Race 10

Post: 5:48 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 15

• #1 OMA THE GREAT (8-1) is well bred in this spot. The inside draw can be a challenge in these maiden races as horse’s get a bit claustrophobic on the rail, but Shug calls on Irad here and that’s a positive.
• #5 DONTGETABOVURAISIN (5-1) goes out for Kentucky based connections that like to fire at the big blue grass meets.
• #4 NAPA CANDY (9-2) has a great shot in the race given the speed & pace numbers.
• #12 VERONICA GREENE (4-1) will have to fire away quickly to get down to the rail, but we just saw a similar thing happen on Wednesday of this week which led to a 74-1 winner, so it isn’t impossible to fathom.

Selections: 1-5-4-12

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