Kentucky Derby Last Chance: Lexington Stakes from Keeneland

Keeneland offers once last chance for Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Saturday’s Lexington Stakes is the final prep for racing’s most well-known event.

Lexington Stakes Analysis

This race has not traditionally been a great prep race for the Kentucky Derby. One of the major factors is its proximity to the event. Horses who qualified in the previous two weeks will have between 5 weeks and a month of training time leading up to the race.

In modern horse training this has been the preferred amount of time between starts for trainers of animals of this caliber. The three weeks between this race and the Derby means the horse won’t have as much time to recover and then get “cranked up” via training for Derby day.

For a list of all the current Kentucky Derby probable runners, check out our 2022 Early Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet

Keeneland Race 9

Post: 5:16 PM ET; Purse: $400,000 Stonestreet Lexington S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 11

• #2 IN DUE TIME (3-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed & class. I love him here, but you won’t find him anywhere on my Derby tickets unless he absolutely destroys this field.
• #6 SKATE TO HEAVEN (30-1) has had really solid speed figures. Weird things can happen in this race so maybe a big upset can compete here.
• #11 CALL ME MIDNIGHT (6-1) also has solid speed figures and should be a major player.
• #4 ETHEREAL ROAD (10-1) is well bred for this spot. I have liked this one in a few of the previous races, but haven’t found the sweet spot with when this one is going to be ready to get the job done.

Selections: 2-6-11-4 (Best Bet: #2 IN DUE TIME)

Saturday Undercard Analysis

Keeneland Race 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET; Purse: $41,000 Claiming, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #3 YES TO MISCHIEF (5-2) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & form.
• #1 H. T. XENA (4-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse's connections & power rating.
• #2 CLASSY CHROME (6-1) could get a nice setup in this race.
• #7 MOONSHINE DREAMER (5-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.

Selections: 3-1-2-7

Keeneland Race 2

Post: 1:32 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 16

• #12 GROWTH CAPITAL (3-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed & pace numbers.
• #1 CAMP DADDY (20-1) could be an upsetter in this field if the money is coming in. Chilly on the board would make this one a pass.
• #2 DOUBLE CLUTCH (6-1) has hit the board at this distance before.
• #10 LUCKMAN (10-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse's stamina & form.

Selections: 12-1-2-10

Keeneland Race 3

Post: 2:04 PM ET; Purse: $68,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #1 STERLING MISS (2-1) is worth a look here given edges in pace numbers & power rating.
• #9 SHORT SUMMER DRESS (5-2) has to be respected based on the connections.
• #7 REMAIN ANONYMOUS (8-1) looks like a really good fringe player to include in the tickets.
• #8 VINTAGE READY (10-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & form.

Selections: 1-9-7-8

Keeneland Race 4

Post: 2:36 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 14

• #8 UNDER OATH (3-1) is bred to be the best here. This one looks like a major factor.
• #3 ARTORIUS (5-2) is getting a lot of respect on the morning line and that can sometimes signal backside buzz. I won’t let this one beat me.
• #1 DINI D'AMORE (10-1) comes out of the Walsh barn that jumped out to a really fast start at the Keeneland meet.
• #4 KANSAS COMET (15-1) rounds out my top four as an unknown commodity. This one feels like a bit of a reach though.

Selections: 8-3-1-4

Keeneland Race 5

Post: 3:08 PM ET; Purse: $110,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 16

• #2 FREEDOM'S WAY (6-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & record at the distance.
• #15 TYSON (7-2) is a talented runner, but the fact that this one wants to be forward and draws the 15 post is not ideal.
• #6 LIMITED LIABILITY (3-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
• #4 CREDIT EVENT (7-2) likes the distance and has drawn a nice cozy inside position.

Selections: 2-15-6-4

Keeneland Race 6

Post: 3:40 PM ET; Purse: $110,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #1 MEISTER (5-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & class.
• #2 RATIONAL CHOICE (2-1) looks like a strong prospect edging the field in several key handicapping factors including connections & power rating.
• #4 MR. TIP (5-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's recent form
• #6 WAYAKIN (5-2) could get a perfect pace scenario today.

Selections: 1-2-4-6

Keeneland Race 7

Post: 4:12 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11

• #4 CANDY TYCOON (5-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed & power rating.
• #6 INJUNCTION (2-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & connections.
• #10 EBBEN (12-1) should be in a position early to make hay late.
• #1 FLAMINGO HAWK (10-1) will be ridden by Irad for Saffie Joseph Jr. If we were running at Gulfstream this would be a heavy favorite, but the trainer can struggle outside of Florida.

Selections: 4-6-10-1

Keeneland Race 8

Post: 4:44 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 Giant's Causeway S., 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 15

• #12 ELLE Z (3-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse's record at the distance & power rating.
• #6 JOUSTER (12-1) is fast and will likely be able to find the front from the 6 hole.
• #5 CHANGE OF CONTROL (4-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
• #11 GOIN' GOOD (8-1) gets Tyler G in the saddle for Brad Cox. That’s a pretty good pair though they don’t combine all that often.

Selections: 12-6-5-11

Keeneland Race 9

Post: 5:16 PM ET; Purse: $400,000 Stonestreet Lexington S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 11

• Lexington Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 2-6-11-4

Keeneland Race 10

Post: 5:48 PM ET; Purse: $500,000 Jenny Wiley S., 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 6

• #4 REGAL GLORY (7-5) looks like a strong prospect edging the field in several key handicapping factors including class & power rating. I wish Chad Brown had the jockeys flipped, but I really like this horse.
• #3 SHANTISARA (6-5) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & connections. It is interesting that Prat goes to this one as he has been getting a lot Chad Brown’s best lately.
• #6 LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE (8-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today.
• #5 NAVRATILOVA (8-1) will be near the front early. You’re in a turf race against 2 Chad’s so good luck to you.

Selections: 4-3-6-5

Keeneland Race 11

Post: 6:20 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11

• #2 ESCAPE ROUTE (3-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & pace numbers.
• #8 DUCALE (5-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & record at the distance.
• #4 HIGHLY MOTIVATED (8-5) returns from former Derby dreams and does make sense in this spot.
• #11 CHOCOLATE BAR (6-1) goes out for the Maker barn. He tends to get a lot of his horses firing their shot at Keeneland.

Selections: 2-8-4-11

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