Keeneland Picks Oct 31: Englishman Leads the Breeders’ Cup Charge

The Breeders' Cup Classic, Turf and Sprint give Keeneland's October 31 card plenty of star power, but finding the winners still requires more than recognizing the famous names.

Since its 1984 debut at Hollywood Park, the Breeders' Cup has grown from a single championship day into a two-day international showcase, and Saturday's nine Grade 1 races carry that global flavor. We have many foreign invaders on the card including the biggest star of the show Forever Young originally from Japan but now more of a globe-trotter for the world's biggest purses.

My Breeders Cup Picks lean on Englishman's speed and Sovereignty's finishing punch, with Tiffany offering a particularly interesting challenge in the Turf. The Keeneland entries and racecard cover all 12 races, beginning at 11:15 a.m. ET. If you're ready to play the card, place your horse-racing bets at BetOnline. These picks were made before scratches and race-day changes so check for these before betting.

Race 1: Overtime Bonus Can Put His Experience to Work

My Pick: #11 Overtime Bonus (Morning line: 12-1)

I'll side with Overtime Bonus in a maiden that has more live possibilities than comfortable answers so a good price is warranted and I am looking for a score to start the day. Mark Casse's colt pressed the issue and kept fighting for second last time, a useful improvement on his earlier efforts. Luis Saez has enough demonstrated speed to work with that the colt needn't wait for everyone else to make a mistake. Seven furlongs asks him to finish the job rather than merely stay involved, and several less-exposed rivals make this a genuine multi-horse toss-up.

My alternative: #4 Knicks Diamonds (Morning line: 10-1) rallied into third despite a wide passage in his only start, giving him a different route to the winner's circle. He can sit behind the early argument and finish, provided that debut promise survives the extra furlong.

Race 2: Right in Time Has Speed to Carry

My Pick: #9 Right in Time (Morning line: 5-2)

Right in Time showed the right kind of determination on debut: secure the lead, edge away and keep answering. Riley Mott's filly now meets winners, but that first effort gives Junior Alvarado something concrete to build around. The preferred trip puts her forward without spending the whole opening quarter wrestling for command. Another furlong and a tougher early challenge are the questions; one successful afternoon doesn't settle either one.

My alternative: #3 Master Queen (Morning line: 8-1) rebounded from a poor effort with a game second and has already won after rating behind horses. That flexibility gives her a way to challenge the pick without turning the race into a suicidal speed contest.

Race 3: Tennessee Lamb Gets a Different Assignment

My Pick: #8 Tennessee Lamb (Morning line: 12-1)

Tennessee Lamb is a turnback play in an allowance where the opinions sit close together. His last two route efforts produced fifth-place finishes, but they were stronger performances than his earlier spring outings. At six and a half furlongs, the appealing picture is a patient ride behind the action followed by one sustained run. David Jacobson's runner has a busy public worktab behind this return, although he still has to show that the shorter trip brings him into contention sooner.

My alternative: #9 Sir Greylind (Morning line: 8-1) nearly won the Tenacious with a rally from the rear last December. That finishing ability makes him interesting if the leaders soften each other up, but the long absence is a substantial question in an already open race.

Race 4: Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) — Ways and Means Takes Aim

My Pick: #2 Ways and Means (Morning line: 7-5)

Ways and Means brings the sort of seven-furlong credentials that make a favorite understandable. Her Ballerina victory followed a hard-earned win in the Bed o' Roses, showing both a decisive finish and the ability to win a fight. Flavien Prat can let the early speed sort itself out before asking her to move. The danger is getting caught in an awkward middle position while the quickest rivals establish a rhythm, rather than enjoying a clean stalking trip.

My alternative: #4 R Disaster (Morning line: 8-1) beat Ways and Means in the Derby City Distaff and returned to winning form in the Gallant Bloom. Her early speed can make it uncomfortable for the favorite, though her disappointing Ballerina shows that she doesn't reproduce her best every time.

Race 5: Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) — Comanche Brave Brings the Finish

My Pick: #7 Comanche Brave (Ire) (Morning line: 3-1)

Comanche Brave has already answered serious questions in the July Cup and Flying Five. In the latter, he worked through traffic before taking over late, exactly the kind of finishing response that matters in a crowded turf dash. The hope is that the early speed does enough work to bring his late run into play. Keeneland's five and a half furlongs leave little room for hesitation, however, and another traffic problem could be much harder to overcome.

My alternative: #11 Joe Shiesty (Morning line: 10-1) just won the Woodford over this course and distance after digging in under pressure. His winning route is the opposite: establish a forward position and make the closers catch a horse who has already shown he can keep fighting here.

Race 6: Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) — Lord Fons Adds Japanese Intrigue

My Pick: #6 Lord Fons (Jpn) (Morning line: 15-1)

Lord Fons is an adventurous selection in a Dirt Mile that refuses to arrange itself neatly. His Sakitama Hai victory and earlier third in the Kashiwa Kinen give the Japanese visitor genuine dirt credentials at distances relevant to this assignment. The winning picture has him conserving energy behind the early action and producing his run when the race begins to stretch out. His first American appearance comes after a sizeable break, so there's more uncertainty here than with a familiar local runner but at the right price he is worth a bet in my opinion.

My alternative: #7 Bracket Buster (Morning line: 7-2) followed an emphatic West Virginia Governor's victory with a closing second in the Parx Dirt Mile. He offers a more familiar stalking route into the race, although repeating the stronger of those performances is hardly automatic.

Race 7: Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) — Blue Bolt Faces Extra Ground

My Pick: #12 Blue Bolt (Ire) (Morning line: 5-2)

Blue Bolt's Sun Chariot and Matron victories give her a compelling recent record against high-class milers. She has shown she can stay within striking distance and then quicken, rather than needing one exact early arrangement. That tactical range could be valuable if this becomes a contest decided by who gets first run. The extra ground is the catch: nine and a half furlongs asks a different question from the mile races she has been winning.

My alternative: #9 Eccentric (Chi) (Morning line: 30-1) won a Chilean Group 1 over a mile and a quarter in May, giving her a stamina argument the pick still has to establish. The layoff and unfamiliar North American setting make her less predictable, but she belongs in the discussion if this develops into a searching finish and at a probably great price, she can spice up the exotics at the very least.

Race 8: Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) — Englishman Sets the Standard

My Pick: #13 Englishman (Morning line: 4-5)

Englishman is my strongest opinion on the card because the case rests on repeated top-class speed. His Woody Stephens and Allen Jerkens wins both showed a horse who could race forward and still respond when asked. That is a useful combination in a Sprint where being quick early is only half the examination. The cutback from seven furlongs means the pressure arrives sooner, and a prolonged fight for the lead would make the final furlong less comfortable. Even so, the appeal is clear: he can help shape the race rather than spend it hoping somebody else supplies the right setup.

My alternative: #11 T O Elvis (Morning line: 7-2) won the Grade 1 Churchill Downs with a wide rally that carried him past the leaders and clear. A similar late attack would be dangerous if the early speed gets carried away, though the lengthy absence adds a real question.

Race 9: Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) — Lugal Is the Big Swing

My Pick: #10 Lugal (Jpn) (Morning line: 30-1)

Lugal supplies the most uncomfortable top selection among these Breeders Cup Picks but if the morning-line holds there is value in here I believe. His narrow second in the Al Quoz Sprint shows the quality that keeps him in the conversation, but the heavy defeat in his latest Japanese start cannot be waved away. The envisioned winning trip is a patient one behind the early action, followed by a sustained move as the leaders come under pressure. Recent form and the move into a mile examination both demand a leap of faith, so this is an upside argument with very obvious hazards.

My alternative: #9 Rhetorical (Morning line: 8-1) controlled the local Turf Mile before sprinting clear, providing direct evidence over this course and distance. He can make the visitors' task harder if allowed similar breathing room, but the challenge is securing that luxury against this opposition.

Race 10: Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) — Nitrogen Makes Them Come Get Her

My Pick: #2 Nitrogen (Morning line: 6-5)

Nitrogen's speed gives her a direct way to take charge of the Distaff. She led throughout her latest victory, and her recent record supplies more than one performance strong enough to make this approach convincing. The ideal ride establishes a comfortable rhythm before the serious challenges arrive. Her tendency to drift is the wrinkle: maintaining a straight, efficient run becomes particularly important when strong finishers are lining up behind her.

My alternative: #4 Fully Subscribed (Morning line: 8-5) has won her last three while showing she can stalk and finish. Prat can keep Nitrogen in sight and try to turn the final furlong into a test of who has saved more for the finish.

Race 11: Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) — Tiffany Can Take the Spotlight

My Pick: #10 Tiffany (Ire) (Morning line: 10-1)

Tiffany has already brought her European form to America and made it count. She saved ground, surged and held clear in the Kentucky Turf Cup over a mile and a half, following her Group 1 success in Berlin. Her ability to race within striking distance draws me to her in a Turf that could reward the horse who gets moving before the deepest closers. She still needs room to launch at the right moment; a good tactical position only helps if she can use it when the opening comes.

My alternative: #14 Deep Monster (Jpn) (Morning line: 30-1) stayed on late in the Kyoto Daishoten and has a Group 1 placing over this distance in Hong Kong. His chance improves if the race becomes a sustained stamina test, though a slow early tempo could leave him with too much ground to recover. Consider him for the exotics to bump the ticket's return.

Race 12: Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) — Sovereignty Gets the Narrow Nod

My Pick: #2 Sovereignty (Morning line: 5-2)

Sovereignty gets my narrow nod in a Classic where the difference between the leading choices is small. These are the best horses in the world and they all have a good reason to be here. Sovereignty's Whitney win came with a wide advance and a decisive finish, the sort of response that makes him dangerous when the front runners begin to feel the distance. Junior Alvarado knows the horse well and can concentrate on finding a clear route into the race. The concern is pace: if the leaders get comfortable, that finishing punch has to overcome both their remaining energy and their positional advantage.

My alternative: #7 Knightsbridge (Morning line: 9-2) won over the Classic distance in August after dueling and then drawing clear. He can make Sovereignty do the chasing, and a repeat of his dominant July performance would turn this into a very serious argument.

My Bottom Line: Englishman's Speed, Sovereignty's Finish and Tiffany's Position

Englishman in the Sprint, Race 8, remains the strongest opinion because he has repeatedly combined speed with an answer when challenged. Sovereignty's late punch in the Classic, Race 12, and Tiffany's tactical position in the Turf, Race 11, complete the main championship themes, while Lugal in Race 9 is my big longshot of the day.

Use the Keeneland odds and racecard page to work through your own race-day handicapping, the track-bias tool to assess running-style and post trends, and the jockey and trainer stats to research the connections. Find more horse racing picks today in the racing hub. If you decide to bet, you can wager on the card at BetOnline.