Churchill Downs Picks- Thurby Analysis (5/1/2025)

The racing action from Churchill Downs on Thursday features the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!

Full Card Analysis

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Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 12:45 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $35k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

 

• #5 MARMO (5-2): Best bet of the card. Stamina to outlast the competition. Race sets up perfectly. Bet today’s best bet with industry leading rebates on BetOnline.

• #3 TEMPTING LADY (6-1): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Newton is a good bet at the meet.

• #1 CAN I GET AWITNESS (5-1): Worth a look. Not likely to be short in the stretch. May be able to find the right setup.

• #7 WARM DAYS (20-1): Fringe Contender. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race. Lauer is the leading trainer in the standings.

Selections: 5 – 3 – 1 – 7

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 1:15 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 4 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.

• #9 BAYTOWN ANUBIS (20-1): Top pick. Looks good based on the 52 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.

• #5 TURIN (4-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.

• #1 BLINGING IT BACK (6-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types.

• #3 CAPTAIN GABE (12-1): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 9 – 5 – 1 – 3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 1:45 PM ET; Claiming $86k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

• #1 TWO EAGLES RIVER (7-5): Top pick. Stamina to outlast the competition. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #3 TAGLIATELLE (7-2): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. May be able to take advantage of the pace.

• #6 SCAT FREE (8-1): Contender. Has experience at this level. Previous success in similar race types.

• #2 UNDERHILL’S TAB (5-2): Fringe Contender. Should still have enough reserves in the final furlong. Ran at this level last out.

Selections: 1 – 3 – 6 – 2

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 2:17 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $134k; 5 F Turf; Field of 16 runners.

• #3 PAYNT YA LATER (20-1): Top pick. Race sets up perfectly.

• #12 NIKI NINE DOORS (5-1): Longshot play of the day. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Seems to be up against the right competition. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.

• #1 READY TO JAM (8-1): Major Player. Potential to have this pace fall just right.

• #13 HURRY UP HANNAH (15-1): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Potential to get the pace of the race flow.

Selections: 3 – 12 – 1 – 13

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 2:52 PM ET; Starter Allowance $83k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

• #2 BOLT AT MIDNIGHT (3-1): Top pick. Stamina to outlast the competition. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #1 RIDDLE SOLVER (10-1): Major Player. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch. Good race flow for this runner.

• #7 CURLIN’S GESTURE (4-1): Major Player. Has been running well enough recently. May be able to find the right setup.

• #5 GAMBLERS TAIL (7-2): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 2 – 1 – 7 – 5

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 3:27 PM ET; Kentucky Juvenile Stakes $250k; 5 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

• #5 PINKY FINGER (8-5): Top pick. Fits well with this group. Stamina to outlast the competition.

• #4 DIBLASI (12-1): Major Player. Productive recent form. Should take a liking to the race shape.

• #7 DOUBLE TALKER (2-1): Contender. Not likely to be short in the stretch.

• #2 MAXIMUS PRIME (15-1): Fringe Contender. Demeritte is the leading trainer early in the standings.

Selections: 5 – 4 – 7 – 2

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 4:03 PM ET; Allowance $127k; 1 M Turf; Field of 16 runners.

• #1 ROTTERDAM (3-1): Prime Win Player. Race sets up perfectly. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #12 OH REALLY (9-2): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.

• #13 BROWN LIQUOR MAN (10-1): Contender. Has experience at this level. Potential to kick home late.

• #11 PRESIDER (5-1): Fringe Contender. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance.

Selections: 1 – 12 – 13 – 11

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 4:38 PM ET; Claiming $78k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

• #4 CLASSIC LEGACY (3-1): Prime Win Player. Race sets up perfectly. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.

• #3 LUDWIG (5-2): Contender. Seems to be up against the right competition. Should take a liking to the race shape.

• #8 HAILSTORM (4-1): Worth a look. Not likely to be short in the stretch.

• #1 POLSTER (10-1): Fringe Contender. Ran at this level last out. Potential to get the pace of the race flow.

Selections: 4 – 3 – 8 – 1

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 5:13 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $141k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

• #2 WORLD RECORD (5-2): Prime Win Player. Proven competitor at this configuration. Should be able to work out a trip.

• #3 PETCOFF (10-1): Contender. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch.

• #5 NAUTICAL STAR (5-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types.

• #4 TRACK PHANTOM (6-1): Contender. Should still have enough in reserve in the final furlong.

Selections: 2 – 3 – 5 – 4

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 5:47 PM ET; Opening Verse Stakes $350k; 1 M Turf; Field of 10 runners.

• #6 MAJOR DUDE (5-2): Prime Win Player. Should be able to work out a trip. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.

• #7 MERCANTE (4-1): Contender. Seems to be up against the right competition.

• #9 BRILLIANT BERTI (3-1): Worth a look. Not likely to be short in the stretch.

• #8 GEORGIE W (20-1): Fringe Contender. Speed figures are a bit slow but not hopeless against the top of the field.

Selections: 6 – 7 – 9 – 8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 11

Post Time: 6:18 PM ET; St. Matthews Overnight Stakes $200k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.

• #3 SPEED BOAT BEACH (5-2): Prime Win Player. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #10 VALENTINE CANDY (9-2): Fringe Contender. Stamina to be in the mix late.

• #8 CHAMPLIN (10-1): Worth a look. Potential to have this pace fall just right.

• #4 HAPPY IS A CHOICE (4-1): Fringe Contender. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance.

Selections: 3 – 10 – 8 – 4

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 12

Post Time: 6:47 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 16 runners.

• #15 SOMETHING STRONGER (12-1): Prime Win Player. Favorable class relief in this spot.

• #1 PACIFIC FRONT (4-1): Fringe Contender. Running well of late.

• #16 HIDEAWAY (5-1): Worth a look. Not likely to be short in the stretch.

• #7 STELLIFY (3-1): Fringe Contender. Debuting here but speed figs are a bit slow.

Selections: 15 – 1 – 16 – 7

Continuing Kentucky Oaks and Derby Coverage

Betting News will continue to cover all the action from Churchill Downs. Check back throughout the week for full card analysis of Thurby, Kentucky Oaks, and the Derby.

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