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Churchill Downs Picks- 2024 Commonwealth Turf Stakes Analysis

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The racing action from Churchill Downs on Saturday features the Commonwealth Turf Stakes. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!

Full Card Analysis

Churchill Downs Picks- 2024 Commonwealth Turf

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Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 1:00 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $58k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

#1 RED ROYALTY (6-1): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration.
#5 CENTIMORGAN (5-1): Major Player. Running well of late. Good race flow for this runner.
#9 MEZCALIFORNIA (7-2): Major Player. Likely in the mix early.
#7 MAGNETIC BEACH (9-2): Major Player. Competitive enough in recent efforts. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance.

Selections: 1 – 5 – 9 – 7

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 1:29 PM ET; Claiming $52k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

#8 AWESOME ANNMARIE (6-5): Top pick. Fits well with this group. Strong early pace figs.
#3 BLAZE ON (9-2): Major Player. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
#6 GHOSTLY NIGHT (4-1): Major Player. Potential to have this pace fall just right. Previous success in similar race types.
#1 LIL TOWN SIS (8-1): Fringe Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 8 – 3 – 6 – 1

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 1:58 PM ET; Claiming $54k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

Longshot Play of the Day

#4 GATLINBURG (6-1): Longshot play of the day. Could be ready for a top effort. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.
#6 MO RHODES (5-2): Major Player. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch. Running well of late.
#7 MY FRIEND LOUIE (8-1): Major Player. The 85 speed rating is among the best in the field.
#3 NOW AND LATER (3-1): Major Player. Expect this one to be there at the end.

Selections: 4 – 6 – 7 – 3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 2:28 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $58k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

#4 STINGER BEE (9-2): Top pick. Looks good based on the 82 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
#10 SUMMONYOURCOURAGE (5-1): Contender. Productive recent form. Good race flow for this runner.
#2 REDEPOSIT (7-2): Worth a look. Has experience at this level.
#3 LEVEE WAS DRY (4-1): Fringe Contender. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong.

Selections: 4 – 10 – 2 – 3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 2:57 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 M Turf; Field of 16 runners.

#8 HIGH SHOT (4-1): Top pick. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.
#5 RIPASSARE (3-1): Major Player. Should take a liking to the race shape.
#6 MY BRAZILIAN GIRL (7-2): Major Player. Potential to kick home late. Should sit a good trip.
#15 MISS SUSAN B (20-1): Contender. Ran at this level last out.

Selections: 8 – 5 – 6 – 15

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 3:26 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $134k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

#9 WICO (4-1): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration.
#1 HARRODSBURG (5-2): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Should take a liking to the race shape.
#2 BANJO CHRIS (9-2): Worth a look. Not likely to be short in the stretch. Previous success in similar race types.
#8 UNDERHILL’S TAB (5-1): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.

Selections: 9 – 1 – 2 – 8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 3:55 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 14 runners.

#7 SEA VISTA (5-2): Top pick. Stamina to outlast the competition. Race sets up perfectly.
#2 YINZER (8-1): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
#10 MO QUALITY (3-1): Worth a look. Hard to argue with the recent races. Speed figs match up nicely.
#1 TARTARIAN (15-1): Fringe Contender. Early pace figs should have this one involved from the start. Could be ready to hit a peak performance.

Selections: 7 – 2 – 10 – 1

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 4:25 PM ET; Chilukki Stakes $300k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

#4 TWO SHARP (2-1): Top pick. Decent form of late. Race sets up perfectly.
#2 PIGALLE (9-2): Major Player. May be able to take advantage of the pace. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
#5 ROYAL SPA (8-1): Contender. May be able find the right setup.
#3 TAXED (4-1): Contender. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 4 – 2 – 5 – 3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 4:55 PM ET; Allowance $127k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

#9 BANNED FOR LIFE (7-2): Top pick. Looks good based on the 91 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Proven competitor at this configuration.
#3 ATTACHE (3-1): Contender. Looks fast enough off previous efforts. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
#11 AGOO (4-1): Worth a look. Not likely to be short in the stretch.
#1 JUSTIFREAK (10-1): Fringe Contender. Competitive enough in recent efforts. Likely to win the battle if challenged in the stretch.

Selections: 9 – 3 – 11 – 1

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 5:25 PM ET; Commonwealth Turf Stakes $300k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 9 runners.

#1 MY BOY PRINCE (6-1): Top pick. Looks good based on the 92 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Should be able to work out a trip.
#8 HERCHEE (3-1): Contender. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch.
#7 LAGYNOS (4-1): Worth a look. Previous success in similar race types. Potential to have this pace fall just right.
#3 DASHMAN (5-2): Fringe Contender. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 1 – 8 – 7 – 3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 11

Post Time: 5:55 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

Best Bet of the Card

#3 GIRL MATH (2-1): Best bet of the card. Stamina to outlast the competition. Looks good based on the 84 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Bet today’s best bet with industry leading rebates on BetOnline.
#7 GOLDEN GAMBLE (7-2): Factor. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
#4 SERAPHIA (3-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. Previous success in similar race types.
#5 CALAMITY (4-1): Contender. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 3 – 7 – 4 – 5

Betting News Horse Racing Coverage

Don’t miss all the horse racing action covered by Betting News each and every week. Coverage includes free handicapping tools, comprehensive guides, and in-depth analysis of the week’s biggest cards. Check out our full card analysis for this week’s upcoming big races:

Friday

Fair Grounds picks featuring opening day action and a pair of stakes races

Saturday

Churchill Downs picks featuring the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes
Del Mar picks featuring the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes
Fair Grounds picks featuring four stakes races

Sunday

Del Mar picks featuring the Grade 3 Red Carpet Stakes

Chris Adams

Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.

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Churchill Downs Picks- 2024 Commonwealth Turf Stakes Analysis