Bowling Green, Amsterdam Close Out Week 3 From Saratoga

The third week of the Saratoga meets ends with a pair of stakes races. Both grade 2 events, the Bowling Green will see the return of potential superstar, Corniche.

Jockey’s Matter

The reality is that a good jockey is like a good coach in other sports. They can elevate a team to reach their potential or they can cause them to underachieve. No horse ever ran beyond their own talent level because they had a great jockey. That jockey just knew how to get the most out of them.

Over Bet Angle

While having a good jockey in the saddle can be a major asset to a horse, they are often overvalued. Frequently bettors will choke down ridiculously short prices on mounts for jockeys like Irad Ortiz Jr. This can even be true when the horse makes no sense on paper.

Finish vs. Rank

One of the calculations I began keeping last year at Saratoga was a metric that measured a jockey’s performance against the odds of their horses to determine which riders were elevating their horses the most.

While I don’t recommend using this as a primary angle, it can be a great way to separate contending horses.

FvR Ranks through Saratoga Day 10

The following includes a stack rank of all jockeys with over 10 overall starts. Positive FVR ratings mean that the jockey is moving horses up. Negative means that the jockey is underperforming against their odds. A number at or around 0 means that mounts are running to expectation.

Sunday Full Card Analysis

Saratoga Race Course- Race 1

Post: 1:05 PM ET; $88k Maiden Special Weight going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 7

• #7 ROYAL CURRENCY (6-1) gets the top selection. She comes into the race in really good form. This one has to be respected going out for the combination of Baker and Saez.
• #1 VOLEUSE (5-2) appears to be a major player in this race. She shouldn't have trouble with the 7 furlong distance. This one seems to fit well enough here.
• #2 TRUANCY (7-5) should improve off the first start and should be competitive in this spot. This one should be part of the early pace in this spot.
• #3 EAU CLAIRE (6-1) is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. This one makes sense on speed figures.

Selections: 7 – 1 – 2 – 3

Saratoga Race Course- Race 2

Post: 1:37 PM ET; $105k Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/16 miles on turf; Entries: 11

• #8 TICKER TAPE HOME (5-2) should improve off the first start and is the top pick. She has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed. This one has plenty of closing kick as well which makes her especially dangerous.
• #7 FREYDIS THE RED (10-1) is a price horse and maybe has a shot. There are a lot of unknowns in this spot so a price is preferable to chalk.
• #6 FOURWAY STOP (12-1) is another long shot with a look. She should be part of the early pace in this spot.
• #11 EMPRESS ISABEL (8-1) should improve off the first start and is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. She makes sense on speed figures. This one has permission to step forward.

Selections: 8 – 7 – 6 – 11

Saratoga Race Course- Race 3

Post: 2:12 PM ET; $80k Claiming going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 8

• #2 LET'S BE CLEAR (3-1) looks best here. She has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one has to be respected going out for the combination of Rice and Ortiz.
• #6 DAWNLAND (7-2) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She seems to fit well enough here. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #3 KNOWING GLANCE (4-1) isn't without hope. She looks to have good class numbers. This one has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.
• #8 TRADE SECRET (9-2) isn't without hope. She makes sense on speed figures.

Selections: 2 – 6 – 3 – 8

Saratoga Race Course- Race 4

Post: 2:45 PM ET; $95k Allowance going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #2 BOLD JOURNEY (6-1) gets the top selection. He has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a top performance. This one seems to fit well enough here based on class.
• #7 TAP'N DE BANK (7-2) should be competitive in this spot. He has races good enough to beat this group.
• #4 MAJORITY PARTNER (8-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one has to be respected going out for the combination of Rice and Ortiz.
• #5 STREET TSAR (3-1) should improve off the first start and isn't without hope. He makes sense on speed figures. This one comes into the race in really good form.

Selections: 2 – 7 – 4 – 5

Saratoga Race Course- Race 5

Post: 3:16 PM ET; $120k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 3/8 miles on turf; Entries: 10

• #7 COASTANA (4-1) is the top pick. She may benefit from a hot pace up front. This one shouldn't have trouble with the 1 3/8th mile distance.
• #6 CAPITAL STRUCTURE (5-2) should be competitive in this spot. She has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a top performance. This one may benefit from a hot pace up front.
• #1 QUEEN BOURBON (10-1) is a price horse and should be competitive in this spot. She makes sense on speed figures. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #2 COMMUNITY ADJUSTED (10-1) is a long shot that could be in with a shot in this race. She makes sense on speed figures and should have the stamina to get the distance.

Selections: 7 – 6 – 1 – 2

Saratoga Race Course- Race 6

Post: 3:49 PM ET; $105k Maiden Special Weight going 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #5 PRANK (9-5) debuts here and looks best here. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Pletcher and Ortiz.
• #1A O SHAUGHESEY (5-1) should improve off the first start and appears to be a major player in this race. Her debut was a really solid start to the career.
• #3 SPLURGE (8-1) should improve off the first start and should be competitive in this spot. She will likely have a lot to do in the lane, but could get up with a competitive run.
• #4 MISINTENTION (10-1) is a price horse and could be in with a shot in this race. This one could be any type here on debut.

Selections: 5 – 1A- 3 – 4

Saratoga Race Course- Race 7

Post: 4:22 PM ET; $125k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 3/16 miles on turf; Entries: 13

• #5 SOLDIER RISING (7-2) gets the top selection. He may benefit from a hot pace up front. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #2 VALUE ENGINEERING (5-1) could be in with a shot in this race. He comes into the race in really good form.
• #1 HARD LOVE (8-1) isn't without hope. He has to be respected going out for the combination of Thomas and Ortiz.
• #6 KINENOS (12-1) is a price horse and is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. He seems to fit well enough here on class. This one could get the right setup in this race with a nice closing kick heading for home.

Selections: 5 – 2 – 1 – 6

Saratoga Race Course- Race 8

Post: 4:59 PM ET; $250k Bowling Green S. going 1 3/8 miles on turf; Entries: 6

• #6 ROCKEMPEROR (3-1) is the top pick. He goes out for the Brown barn and gets Prat in the irons. Prat does seem to be getting the best Chad Brown horse when multiple are entered. This one will be rolling late and has a good closing kick that could get the job done here.
• #2 ARKLOW (2-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one is a hard trying type that’s always in the mix.
• #4 CROSS BORDER (4-1) could be in with a shot in this race. He has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #1 L'IMPERATOR (6-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end. New York turf races sometimes get run at a snails pace and front running scores are there for the taking.

Selections: 6 – 2 – 4 – 1

Saratoga Race Course- Race 9

Post: 5:34 PM ET; $200k Amsterdam S. going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #7 CORNICHE (5-2) looks best here. He could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end. This one goes out for the Pletcher barn and gets Saez in the irons. This will be the horse’s first race out of the care of Bob Baffert.
• #4 PAPPACAP (6-1) should be competitive in this spot. He has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a career top. Even then it may not be enough to top Corniche.
• #8 MY PRANKSTER (8-1) could be in with a shot in this race. He shouldn't have trouble with the 6 1/2 furlong distance. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #2 GUNITE (4-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed. The problem is that this one will be facing an animal with a massive amount of pure talent and even a speedy trip may fall victim to a horse with just more talent.

Selections: 7 – 4 – 8 – 2

Saratoga Race Course- Race 10

Post: 6:09 PM ET; $50k Maiden Claiming going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf; Entries: 13

• #5 MARTINEZ (4-1) gets the top selection. He should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders. This one makes sense on speed figures.
• #7 SHARP SENSATION (6-1) could be in with a shot in this race. He seems to fit well enough here. This one runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.
• #12 BRENNAN'S WAR (10-1) is a price horse and feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He seems to fit well enough here. This one should be part of the early pace in this spot.
• #10 BOINTHEBACK (10-1) is a price horse and isn't without hope. He has been running against some solid runners in previous efforts so maybe he’s well prepared to take a step forward here.

Selections: 5 – 7 – 12- 10

Daily Coverage

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3 Stars of the Week

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