Belmont Park Picks for October 28, 2026: Many solid favorites but longshots lurk behind

My Belmont Park picks today feature a turf closer worth waiting for and a dirt contender with something to answer for. The likely favorites look good in almost all races but I have longer shot options with good chances as well.

Race 7's inner-turf optional claimer gives Eff Thirty Five a chance to put his stakes experience to work, while Counterspy makes Race 4 interesting for a different reason: his better efforts would be dangerous here, but his latest defeat deserves no convenient excuse.

This eight-race Wednesday program has no stakes, yet the contrast between those experienced runners and Race 2's uncertain juvenile cast gives us some interesting races to bet on. The question running through the card is which horses can turn the right trip into a win.

These picks were made before scratches and race-day changes. I'm handicapping the Belmont Park entries for fast dirt and firm turf but as usual check the actual ground before you place your bets. If you're ready to bet the card, place your horse-racing wagers at BetOnline.

Race 1: Ur Desire Gets a More Manageable Assignment

My Pick: #4 Ur Desire (Morning line: 6-5)

Ur Desire gets my nod because this assignment asks less of her than several of the races she has been trying, particularly the allowance company she faced most recently. Her latest 61 Beyer came in a wide-running defeat, but it gives her a useful recent foundation against these fillies without digging through ancient history for something encouraging. The preferred picture has her settling behind the early running, keeping the leaders within reach, and producing one sustained move instead of chasing from the first jump. There is no guaranteed collapse ahead of her, so patience cannot become a head start for the opposition. The class relief makes sense; now her finishing punch has to arrive when her rider asks for it.

My alternative: #5 Essence L Vee (Morning line: 3-1) already followed her maiden victory with a third against this non-winners-of-two claiming level, improving from an inside trip in her latest start. She can sit a little closer than Ur Desire if the leaders are comfortable, and that positioning could let her get first run rather than trying to win a late argument from behind.

Race 2: Nevah Bettah Has Something the Newcomers Don't

My Pick: #3 Nevah Bettah (Morning line: 2-1)

Nevah Bettah has a race under his belt and a reason to make that experience count, earning a narrow preference in this juvenile maiden. His debut brought a third despite a slightly slow beginning and a wide approach into the stretch, giving him something tangible to build on. With five first-time starters in the field, the opening scramble could be lively, and his late-running debut gives Manuel Franco the option of letting the eager ones sort themselves out before joining the conversation. A cleaner beginning would help him stay connected, but I'm not asking him to suddenly become the quickest horse away from the gate. This is more than a two-horse contest: the newcomers can change its complexion immediately, while Nevah Bettah at least brings evidence of handling an afternoon at the races.

My alternative: #1 Rapidly Royal (Morning line: 12-1) has demonstrated early speed on turf and could make the newcomers work for their position if he handles his first dirt attempt. His latest fade is a real concern, but the longshot's winning route is understandable: leave alertly, secure position from the inside, and carry that speed farther on a surface he has yet to prove.

Race 3: Daisy Doo Needs to Finish the Conversation

My Pick: #4 Daisy Doo (Morning line: 4-1)

Daisy Doo brings the most persuasive recent effort to this inner-turf maiden, and his willingness in the stretch last time puts him on top. That runner-up finish came with a 75 Beyer after he traveled off the rail and came wider into the lane, giving the effort substance beyond a ground-saving trip. There should be enough interest near the front to let Javier Castellano find a following position and keep Daisy Doo out of the opening wrestling match. The danger is familiar to anyone who has followed a talented maiden too long: he has had opportunities before and still has not made that first win stick. I'll take his recent improvement and a race that should give him something to chase, while recognizing that several of these have a sensible winning case.

My alternative: #2 Runcot (Morning line: 12-1) can travel closer to the action, and his last turf appearance included steadying and a change of course in the stretch rather than a completely uninterrupted run. He returns from a break with only three starts behind him, so the case is for a less exposed horse finding a clearer passage; the shorter assignment and his readiness to finish it remain questions.

Race 4: Counterspy Gets the Nod, Without an Alibi

My Pick: #5 Counterspy (Morning line: 5-2)

Counterspy stays on top, but a comeback is not an eraser, and his July Saratoga defeat cannot be swept under the tack-room rug. He had a fair trip and did not materially break slowly, so that poor showing counts against him despite the considerably better ability demonstrated in his earlier Parx races. The June 90 Beyer makes him dangerous in this claiming sprint, while the three-month absence asks him to bring that better version back instead of receiving credit merely for having been that horse before. An honest pace would give him a target, but surrendering too much ground could leave a good finishing move arriving after the winner has escaped. Counterspy has enough established ability to earn the selection, and enough recent doubt to make this a proper race rather than a coronation.

My alternative: #7 Treaty Obligation (Morning line: 3-1) can stalk ahead of Counterspy and try to settle matters before the deeper runner builds momentum. His latest third showed he can remain competitive at this sort of level, although the lack of a decisive late kick makes getting the jump on the selection more appealing than leaving everything to a final-stride fight.

Race 5: Old Time Rocknroll Must Change the Ending

My Pick: #4 Old Time Rocknroll (Morning line: 3-1)

Old Time Rocknroll has enough recent turf form to win this maiden claimer, and leaving special-weight company gives him an obvious opportunity to change the ending. His last three races all ended in third, including a belated finish after coming wide into the latest stretch, so running respectably is established and taking the whole race is the question. A dozen runners give him traffic to work around as well as horses to follow, and I want him settled before finding a lane for one uninterrupted run. Another performance in which the best work happens after the front pair have settled their business will not do the trick. The drop makes him the preference, but that habit of collecting a minor award keeps the enthusiasm attached to what he actually does when a winning chance presents itself.

My alternative: #6 Orgonite (Morning line: 4-1) also gets away from maiden special weights and can sit somewhat nearer the pace than the selection before launching his own run. His spring form belongs in this conversation, but he returns from a summer break and still has to show that the easier company will produce a more decisive finish rather than another respectable placing.

Race 6: That'sthefactjack Can Keep the Speed in Sight

My Pick: #2 That'sthefactjack (Morning line: 3-1)

That'sthefactjack has the recent win I want to see, with the appeal coming from how she put it together rather than assuming a winner automatically wins again. She pursued from outside before edging clear in her latest seven-furlong claimer, showing she could stay involved, make her challenge, and finish the job. This shorter sprint could unfold without much early argument, so a stalking position must keep her connected rather than leave her waiting behind horses still full of running. Charging into a duel is unnecessary, but surrendering easy lengths would hand the initiative to the runner most comfortable controlling the tempo. The selection asks her to reproduce a practical winning trip, with the cutback testing whether she can stay close enough to make that late effort count.

My alternative: #5 Dia Por Dia (Morning line: 2-1) owns the early speed to make herself the horse everyone else has to catch, and her Saratoga claiming victory showed how effective she can be when she takes charge. The subsequent Belmont failure cannot be wished away, so she needs to recover that earlier form; a comfortable lead would give her a much better chance of doing it than a race spent answering pressure.

Race 7: Eff Thirty Five Brings the Stronger Finishing Argument

My Pick: #4 Eff Thirty Five (Morning line: 7-2)

Eff Thirty Five is the turf runner I'm most interested in seeing get a clean crack at this field, with recent stakes company supplying a serious foundation for the optional-claiming assignment. His Kentucky Turf Cup appearance and the willing finish in his latest stakes start belong in the argument, while his earlier summer win showed he can split horses and get there late. He should do his best work after the early positions are settled, allowing Ricardo Santana Jr. to save the challenge until the horses in front have to commit. The complication is Market Timing, whose speed could let him establish a comfortable rhythm and make the closers come hunting sooner than they would prefer. Eff Thirty Five's turf record earns the selection, but a sensible waiting ride cannot become an invitation for the leader to steal the race.

My alternative: #6 Market Timing (Morning line: 4-1) comes off an allowance-level turf win in which he stayed in hand near the inside and held well, giving him a straightforward tactical case if he secures the front. The longer distance and tougher allowance condition still need answering, but making Eff Thirty Five chase a relaxed leader would put those questions to the test on his own terms.

Race 8: Amira's Star Has Another Chapter to Write

My Pick: #1 Amira's Star (Morning line: 4-1)

Amira's Star gets a tentative nod in a finale that is a genuine scramble, with more than two plausible winners and no reason to pretend the answer comes easily. Her only start came on the all-weather track, where she tired, so this first turf attempt and move into maiden claiming offer a different assignment she still has to prove she can handle. From the inside, the attractive trip is to find cover, avoid the early argument, and get room to move when the field fans into the stretch. That requires a more accomplished second outing, especially with a full field capable of turning a useful rail position into a pocket with no timely exit. I'm giving the lightly raced filly the chance to write a better second chapter, but that possibility needs to become something visible when the gates open.

My alternative: #5 Chaumet (Morning line: 9-2) has actual turf experience and can stalk a little closer, giving her a different way to take advantage if the race starts sorting itself out before Amira's Star gets clear. Gate contact and a stretch interruption complicated her last start, but she also has had more chances already and must turn a smoother trip into a sharper finish.

My Bottom Line: Give the Finishers a Chance, and Make Them Earn It

Ur Desire in Race 1 gets a more manageable assignment, Counterspy remains the Race 4 choice despite a recent effort that deserves no excuse, and Eff Thirty Five's established turf class makes Race 7 the contest I most want to watch unfold. With the long Belmont Park stretch, the closers have plenty of time to show what they are really made of.

For your own race-day handicapping, go to the Belmont track page to work through the card, use the track-bias tool to assess running-style and post trends, and research the riders and barns through the jockey statistics and trainer statistics.

The BettingNews horse-racing articles offer more reading alongside these horse racing picks today, and when you decide to play, BetOnline is a place to wager on the card.