Canadian Grand Prix 2023 Odds, Predictions & Picks

For the second time this season, Formula 1 is in action in North America this weekend. Last month, it was the Miami Grand Prix; tomorrow, the 2023 edition of the Canadian Grand Prix will take place at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal.

The Canadian Grand Prix is the eighth race on this season’s 22-race schedule, and it is the second of five North American races on the calendar, with the United States Grand Prix (Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas), Mexico City Grand Prix, and Las Vegas Grand Prix still to come.

As has been the case all season long, the field will be looking to disrupt Red Bull’s dominance. Max Verstappen has won five races, including each of the last three, while Sergio Perez claimed the other two race wins in Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan.

Entering Sunday’s race, Verstappen holds a 53-point edge over Perez atop the standings, with Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton, and George Russell rounding out the top five.

Current Formula One World Drivers’ Championship Standings

1. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – 170 points
2. Sergio Perez (Red Bull) – 117
3. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) – 99
4. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) – 87
5. George Russell (Mercedes) – 65
6. Carlos Sainz Jr. (Ferrari) – 58
7. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – 42
8. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin) -35

Unsurprisingly, Verstappen is heavily favored to make it six wins in eight races this season. Let’s take a look at how the odds shake out.

Odds to Win the 2023 Canadian Grand Prix

• Max Verstappen -275
• Fernando Alonso +900
• Charles Leclerc +1000
• Sergio Perez +1000
• Lewis Hamilton +1200
• Carlos Sainz Jr. +2000
• George Russell +2000
• Lance Stroll +10000

Canadian Grand Prix 2023 Predictions and Picks

So, will this finally be the week that we see a win for someone other than Verstappen and Perez? For the sake of injecting some drama and chaos into things, it sure would be nice.

But hopes and dreams are one thing, and reality is another, and in the most recent race, the Spanish Grand Prix, Verstappen won by 24 seconds over Hamilton, who finished second for the second time this season.

Mercedes recently rolled out some upgrades designed to lessen the gap between themselves and Red Bull and enhance their chances of reaching the top step of the podium at some point in 2023.

There is a fair chance that it will happen, but until it actually happens, it’s pretty difficult to look anywhere other Verstappen for the Canadian Grand Prix win.

Obviously, there is not real betting value in backing Verstappen to win the race outright. So, with that in mind, it’s a good idea to look for value elsewhere with other bets and finishing positions.

Will Hamilton pick up a second straight podium finish? He finished outside the top four in four of the first five races, but in two races with the upgraded car, he has finished fourth at Monaco, which is a good result, and second in Spain. I feel positive about his chances of a podium in Montreal and am happy to back it at +200.

My other pick is with the Canadian in the field. Stroll has had two retirements this season, but he has also finished in the top six three times, which puts him on pace for a career-high in top-six finishes.

Prior to this season, the Canadian Grand Prix has been one of Stroll’s better results of his seasons–it wasn’t held in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic–other than a retirement in 2018, when he was with Williams. This season, he has the best car he has had to date and will be expecting to push for a top-six finish, and -105 odds are worth getting behind.