Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix Predictions & Picks: Will Verstappen’s Winless Run End at Spa?

The last time Max Verstappen went winless in more than three Formula 1 races, he had nine career race wins to his name. Will his current three-race winless run end at today’s Belgian Grand Prix? If it does, he and Red Bull will enter F1’s summer break with one of their most important victories in some time.

Verstappen’s last extended winless run came in the 2020 season. That year, he won the fifth race of the season, the 70^th Anniversary Grand Prix at Silverstone, then went 11 races without a win. That run ended at the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, which would be the site of his highly controversial World Drivers’ Championship win the following year.

Starting with that 2020 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Verstappen has won 52 of 80 races, including seven of 13 races this season.

But since capturing his 61^st career Formula 1 win at the Spanish Grand Prix last month, Verstappen has watched three different drivers win the last three races: George Russell at the Austrian Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton at the British Grand Prix, and Oscar Piastri at last Sunday’s Hungarian Grand Prix.

Verstappen actually increased his championship lead at the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone, but at the Hungaroring, championship rival Lando Norris trimmed eight points from that lead by finishing second, three spots ahead of Verstappen.

As a result, Verstappen is now 76 points ahead of Norris with 11 races remaining in the season.

Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship Standings (Through 13 of 24 Races)

1. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – 265
2. Lando Norris (McLaren) – 189
3. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – 162
4. Carlos Sainz Jr. (Ferrari) – 154
5. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) – 149
6. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) – 125
7. Sergio Perez (Red Bull) – 124
8. George Russell (Mercedes) – 116

While Norris still has a lot of ground to cover to make things interesting, things have tightened up in the World Constructors’ Championship race.

By virtue of taking the top two spots on the podium and 43 total points last week, McLaren trimmed 27 points off Red Bull’s lead, as Verstappen came in fifth and Perez came in seventh, his seventh consecutive finish of seventh or worse. Ahead of today’s race, Red Bull’s hold on top spot is looking rather tenuous, as McLaren are now only 51 points behind.

Formula 1 World Constructors’ Championship Standings (Through 13 of 24 Races)

1. Red Bull – 389
2. McLaren – 338
3. Ferrari – 322
4. Mercedes – 241

Since the World Constructors’ Championship was first awarded in 1958, there have been only 11 Formula 1 seasons in which the World Drivers’ Championship-winning driver was not a member of the World Constructors’ Championship-winning team.

Will the Belgian Grand Prix prove to be pivotal in how both championship races pan out?

In qualifying, Verstappen outpaced the field in Q2 and Q3 but will start 11^th due to a ten-place grid penalty for taking on his fifth engine of the season, one more than the allowed limit of four. That means that Leclerc, who posted the second-best time in Q3, will start on pole for the second time this season. Norris, meanwhile, will start fourth but qualified fifth, his worst qualifying result since he qualified ninth at the Miami Grand Prix, where he went on to record his first career Formula 1 win.

But with Spa being conducive to overtakes, oddsmakers still view the top two championship contenders favorably. At BetOnline, Verstappen and Norris jointly sit atop Belgian Grand Prix winner odds, well ahead of Piastri, Perez, Leclerc, and Hamilton.

Odds to Win the Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix

• Max Verstappen +200
• Lando Norris +200
• Oscar Piastri +700
• Sergio Perez +800
• Charles Leclerc +850
• Lewis Hamilton +900
• George Russell +4000
• Carlos Sainz Jr. +5000
• Fernando Alonso +25000
• Esteban Ocon +50000
• Alexander Albon +75000
• Pierre Gasly +100000
• Lance Stroll +100000
• Daniel Ricciardo +100000
• Valtteri Bottas +150000
• Kevin Magnussen +200000
• Nico Hulkenberg +200000
• Yuki Tsunoda +250000
• Logan Sargeant +300000
• Guanyu Zhou +400000

See more Belgian Grand Prix odds at BetOnline. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a bonus to bet on the Belgian Grand Prix.

Belgian Grand Prix Starting Grid

Drivers in bold received a grid penalty.

1. Charles Leclerc
2. Sergio Perez
3. Lewis Hamilton
4. Lando Norris
5. Oscar Piastri
6. George Russell
7. Carlos Sainz Jr.
8. Fernando Alonso
9. Esteban Ocon
10. Alexander Albon
11. Max Verstappen
12. Pierre Gasly
13. Daniel Ricciardo
14. Valtteri Bottas
15. Lance Stroll
16. Nico Hulkenberg
17. Kevin Magnussen
18. Logan Sargeant
19. Guanyu Zhou
20. Yuki Tsunoda

• Verstappen received a ten-place grid penalty.
• Zhou received a three-place grid penalty.
• Tsunoda received a 60-place grid penalty.

Belgian Grand Prix Predictions & Picks

In 2022, Verstappen was one of eight drivers to incur a Belgian Grand Prix grid penalty and started 14^th. But he took the lead on the 12^th lap and went on to win by nearly 18 seconds.

Will we see a similar result at Spa today? He has looked rather mortal as of late, but he smoked the field in qualifying, finishing 0.599 seconds ahead of Leclerc and 0.822 seconds ahead of Norris.

That’s highly encouraging if you wish to make the most of another opportunity to back Verstappen from a position of value. But Norris has made life difficult for his pal recently, and it’s perhaps telling that BetOnline fancies a British driver (+120) over a Dutch driver (+200) and a McLaren driver (+110) over a Red Bull driver (+125), even with Perez starting second and carrying a strong qualifying run into the race.

Speaking of Perez, his Formula 1 future has been cast into doubt with his poor run of results. Today presents an opportunity to erase at least a bit of those doubts, and I’m eyeing value over form here and rolling with a Red Bull win (+120) and both Red Bull cars to finish in the top three (+275).

Recent Belgian Grand Prix Winners

• 2023: Max Verstappen
• 2022: Max Verstappen
• 2021: Max Verstappen
• 2020: Lewis Hamilton
• 2019: Charles Leclerc
• 2018: Sebastian Vettel
• 2017: Lewis Hamilton
• 2016: Nico Rosberg
• 2015: Lewis Hamilton
• 2014: Daniel Ricciardo

Elsewhere, there’s some great value with Ocon and Alpine, who are set to part ways at the end of the season.

Ocon, who will join Haas next season, hasn’t finished outside of the top ten at the Belgian Grand Prix since 2016, his first appearance in the race. He is -110 to take that streak to seven straight appearances (he didn’t take part in the race in 2019, when he spent that Formula 1 season as a reserve driver for Mercedes).

Will he be a part of a double top-ten day for Alpine? They are +400 at Bovada to achieve that result, and I love the value there. In addition to Ocon’s streak, Gasly’s lone non-top ten at the Belgian Grand Prix (in six appearances) is an 11^th-place finish last year.

Other Formula 1 Betting Information

Where to Bet on Formula 1 This Season

Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of Formula 1 betting odds. Over the course of the season, you can bet on each race on the schedule. That includes the Monaco Grand Prix, British Grand Prix, and other famous F1 races.

Along with being able to bet on F1 race winner odds for each race throughout the season, sportsbooks like BetOnline and Bovada offer finishing position odds (top three, top five, and/or top ten) and other specials.

Also, you can find F1 championship winner odds at most sportsbooks that accept USA bettors.

In addition to BetOnline, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in betting on F1:

• BetUS (review)
• Betwhale (review)
• Bovada (review)
• MyBookie (review)
• Sportsbetting.ag (review)

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

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